“Modi must seize SAARC potential as a ‘regional’ leader

The media did a wonderful job of covering Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s lavish oath taking ceremony, the formation of his cabinet and of course his first meeting with the Pakistani counterpart, Nawaz Sharif who might have ruffled some feathers in the Pakistani Army and I-S-I by agreeing to visit New Delhi and attend the oath taking ceremony.

The Modi-Sharif meeting on day-one of Modi’s five year term was significant because both leaders have a clear mandate. Knowing Modi’s work style, it is obvious that most of the foreign policy initiatives will come from the PMO, and in that regard the meeting will prove useful even though it lasted just for forty minutes and nothing solid came out of it. There was nothing new except that Sharif did not mention Kashmir even once and did not have a meeting with the Hurriyat leaders, which had been a must for any Pakistani leader’s visit to New Delhi.

But the media in general, except for CNN-IBN and a few newspapers, forgot that Sharif was just one of the eight SAARC leaders who met Modi and his meetings with them were also significant, especially for Modi if he wants to prove that he can be a great regional leader like Atal Behari Vajpayee.  It is true that better relations between India and Pakistan are also crucial for SAARC’s success. But I, forone, also expected the media to underline how a successful SAARC can turn the region into a powerful and self-reliant economic entity with a possibility of significant exports to other countries.  Modi’s extended hand of friendship to all SAARC countries is a welcome step and kindles hope that may be he really understands the economic and commercial potential of the region if there is peace and all members genuinely cooperate with each other.

I, for one, believe that there is an urgent need for genuine cooperation in South Asia where countries of the region could start depending on each other for those crucial products which they now import from the West. This way they will pay lower freights and at the same time contribute to the economic growth of the region. If this kind of pragmatism spreads in the region, the region, given its potential, can become a bigger market than China or say the whole of Europe and can also become self-reliant in a number of products and services that they now import from the West. And the West knows that, and may be that is why it does not encourage such logical moves that may not serve their self-interest. India and Pakistan together can expand their cooperation and set examples for the other SAARC neighbors in the region.

In fact, every SAARC country has something it can share with the others for which they have to go outside the region to import. Just consider: rubber production in Sri Lanka, natural gas in Bangladesh and, with all its waterfalls, Nepal’s capacity to produce hydroelectricity.

Let us take Sri Lanka first. It produces almost 150,000 tons of rubber annually. This trend continues with Sri Lanka exporting about 20 per cent – 30 per cent of the rubber production in raw form while 70 per cent-80 per cent is used by domestic industries. So, given the quantity and quality of the rubber produced in Sri Lanka, they can even produce more quality tires than the total demand of the South Asian countries and then even export some. So if its tire industry gets a boost from SAARC, or just India, it can produce enough tires itself and for the whole region. Then countries like India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh will not have to import tires from Western countries. They will also have to spend less on freight due to the proximity of the supplier.

Bangladesh is among the fortunate to have huge volumes of natural gas resources, even though only part of the resources are discovered, and then only a part of the discovered resources has been proven. But unfortunately the natural gas situation in Bangladesh is in a desperate situation because it is letting its gas fields to hibernate. And to stop hibernation, it needs swift development and production of natural gas. SAARC countries – that include Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka – can help Bangladesh do it and at the same time produce fertilizers and also power in some sectors. Such a pragmatic move can help Bangladesh in producing power and also fertilizer to meet the demand of the whole region, eliminating the need for importing fertilizers from the West by India, the biggest importer in the region.

Power is also in shortage in Nepal although it has a huge hydropower potential. In fact, the perennial nature of Nepalese rivers and the steepness of the country’s topography provide ideal conditions for the development of some of the world’s largest hydroelectric projects there. According to some estimates, Nepal’s hydropower potential is more than 40,000MWs, but out of that only 1000 MWs have been developed so far. SAARC countries, especially India, can also help Nepal generate enough hydroelectricity for domestic consumption and then also for export to neighbouring countries like Pakistan and India.

In Afghanistan, it is estimated that deposits of metals, hydrocarbons and rare earth minerals could be worth at least one trillion US dollars. It has all the ingredients to make cement in huge volumes that will be good for the whole region. China is already working on increasing its footprint there, once the security situation improves. SAARC countries, especially India can also play a big role there if there is a genuine cooperation between India and Pakistan, without any unfounded suspicions and fears.

So, the Indian media should impress upon Modi, who wants to become a regional leader like Vajpayee, that he must seize the opportunity and try to foster real cooperation among the SAARC nations so that they can prosper themselves and in the process make South Asia a self-reliant region, perhaps to the envy of China and the West.

My contention is that if Modi believes he can be a regional leader, he should start behaving like one at the very outset.